A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
